The climate crisis is intensifying. The year 2023 was not only the warmest year on instrumental records but was calculated to be the hottest year in the past 100,000 years. Urgent calls for phasing out all kinds of fossil fuels are getting louder. Today, the world energy supply is very heavily dependent on fossil fuels – Oil, Coal and Natural gas (including dirtier fracked gas). As per the International Energy Agency, fossil fuels are likely to supply about 75% of global energy supply in 2024. While nuclear fission energy is carbon neutral in the long term, in the short term it actually increases emissions intensity, apart from being very dangerous for all life. Big hydropower has been shown to be massively disruptive of people and their lives, along with destruction of ecosystems. That leaves the so-called new-renewables as the only safe and presently known energy sources – Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal, wind energy, Geothermal energy, tidal and wave energy, and possibly ocean thermal energy. And the urgent need for global energy systems to transition away from fossil fuels to these RE systems, is paramount. The caveat here is, this transition has to be with justice and equity at its core, or what is called a ‘Just Transition’.

The term “energy security” gained significant attention after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which disrupted oil and gas supplies and drove prices up sharply—from under $80/barrel in January 2022 to over $115/barrel by late March. This escalation strained economies worldwide, particularly in Europe, where many countries heavily depend on Russian oil and gas. With winter demand peaking, industrialized nations like Germany, which relies on Russian gas, faced severe energy shortages. The situation worsened in September 2022 when the Nord Stream 1 & 2 pipelines, critical for transporting Russian gas to Germany, were sabotaged in the Baltic Sea—an act allegedly involving U.S. intelligence, as suggested by President Biden's prior statements. Furthermore, U.S.-led sanctions against Russia and restrictions on global financial systems complicated the purchase of Russian oil, prompting BRICS and other developing countries to consider de-dollarization initiatives in response.

Figure 1: Global Energy Consumption by Source, and Carbon Emissions (1900-2021). Source: Visual Capitalist.

Taking a closer look at the global primary energy consumption by source and how this has changed over time shows that the world is still heavily dependent on oil and natural gas, up to 52% even in 2021 (adding coal, takes this to a whooping 77%). Despite all the drumbeats about the ‘great strides in new renewables’ (which formed a mere 06.28% of global primary energy consumption in 2021 including the dominant new installations, with hydropower adding a similar percentage), there is in fact no energy transition but an energy addition, as figure 1 shows.
Amid a geopolitically induced oil and gas shortage, several countries, including Europe and Germany—both vocal advocates for climate action—turned to coal, the most carbon-intensive fossil fuel. Developing countries with coal reserves, such as China, India, and Indonesia, have also ramped up coal use to offset the initial impact of fuel shortages and price hikes. Consequently, despite some climate efforts, global emissions again rose by 0.9% (321 Mt) in 2022, reaching a record high of over 36.8 Gt. This increase, following a dip in 2020 due to COVID-19, continued through 2021 and 2022, underscoring the gap between current emissions and the reduction targets set by the IPCC. Notably, this rise occurred even as emissions from Land Use Change declined, as depicted in figure 2.

Figure 2: Global emissions for land use had a steady decrease over the years. Source: Carbon Brief.

The first part of the story addresses energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from coal, oil, and gas. On the climate action front, significant developments occurred, especially with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) –the body tasked with working on the science of climate change and its meaningful redressal methods– releasing the latest sixth assessment report (AR6). The first part, covering the Physical Science Basis of Climate Change (Working Group I), was released in October 2022, just before COP-27 in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The reports from Working Groups I, II, and III underscored that, to have even a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, emissions must peak by 2025 and decrease by at least 45% by 2030—requiring a yearly reduction of 7% or more. Yet, the reality is starkly different, with CO₂ concentrations increasing by about 3 ppm annually.

While most climate scientists and climate justice activists call for a rapid reduction in emissions, this has been dismissed as “unrealistic” by fossil fuel producers and importers alike, who have largely ignored climate warnings. These nations face the pressures of public unrest due to winter heating shortages, potential job losses in industry, and, above all, the influence of big finance. Fossil fuel corporations, driven by massive investments and profit motives, continue to thrive, with oil companies achieving record profits of $219 billion, reinforcing global dependence on these fuels. As a global community—despite the vastly different contributions between rich and poor nations—we have far surpassed the “safe” CO₂ limit of 350 ppm advocated by top climate scientists like James Hansen. Today’s levels, around 424 ppm, are higher than at any point in the past three million years, predating even the earliest humans. Over just the past 200 years, human activity has increased atmospheric CO₂ by 50%.

Energy encompasses far more than electricity, motor fuel, or cooking gas—it’s embedded in every product, service, and communication, from WhatsApp messages to emails. Currently, about 75% of global energy (even higher in countries like India and China) still comes from fossil fuels. Food, our most essential energy source, relies heavily on external inputs; industrial agriculture uses 6-10 calories of external energy input per calorie of food produced, with nearly 80% of this energy coming from fossil fuels. In essence, we’re consuming fossil fuels with each meal. Our transportation, the backbone of our interconnected world, relies 90% on fossil fuels, and most buildings—homes, offices, hospitals—depend on energy for heating, cooling, and ventilation, much of which is fossil-fuel-based. The dependence extends into nearly every aspect of modern life.

As can be seen by any such Zero-emission (or “net-zero” – the questionable presentation) achievement pathway, each year of delay in transition, makes the path even harder (the curve becomes steeper) as seen in figure 3. Going by what is happening in the global energy scenarios – whether in rich industrialized or developing and industrializing countries, the present already steep pathway to zero emission by or before 2050 — the minimum requirement for any chance to avoid triggering catastrophic climate change, seems increasingly remote. Evolutionary changes that we are seeing are far too slow to avoid the crisis, but revolutions by social tipping points can change the equation, if and when a fairly significant percentage of the people are mobilized. An 1.5 C rise in average temp is now a given, but it is still possible to return from that overshoot. The IPCC and the International Energy Agency says so if the global economies do what has never been done before.

Figure 3: Reaching net-zero. Source: IMF, 2021.

A critical yet often overlooked question in the energy transition debate is how much total energy—accounting for materials, services, and other embedded uses—can a society/community/family sustainably consume. While there is no consensus, we can consider models like pre-crisis Sri Lanka or Kerala in India, which achieved high Human Development Index scores with relatively low per capita energy use. Could a renewable-powered world, based on such efficient societies, be achievable, and at what cost? Taking India as a case study: densely populated and limited in land, it faces unique challenges. As of September 2024, India’s installed electricity capacity is around 442 GW, with 172 GW from renewables. To meet its 2030 target of 900 GW, India must replace approximately 270 GW of non-renewables and add 458 GW of new renewable energy (RE). Hypothetically, if each of India’s 700,000 villages installed just 1 MW of combined solar, wind, and micro-hydro, with public technical and financial support, the country could achieve 100% renewable electricity in 10-15 years. Organized transmission companies could transfer excess power to urban and industrial areas. This approach requires only 3 acres per 1 MW of solar, potentially dual-use land, and could rejuvenate rural economies by powering micro-enterprises and cold storage, boosting farmer incomes. In a second phase, villages and urban areas could expand RE capacity to replace most non-electric applications.

Across India, ordinary people are finding innovative solutions for sustainable energy, often with minimal support. In Uttarakhand’s mountainous Matli village, near Uttarkashi, a small stream flows down to power a series of 5 kW nano-hydro plants serving local homes. One standout example is Mr. Joshi's setup: by day, a stream diversion powers his grain and spice grinder, and by evening, he switches the system to a generator, producing enough electricity to light homes, charge phones, and run TVs. Positioned at the base of this network of nano-hydro units, Mr. Joshi’s system is remarkably versatile and even offers potential for carbon-free transport with e-scooters. During severe storms, these nano-hydro plants provided uninterrupted power, keeping crucial communication lines open.

In Rajasthan’s dry Chaksu block, where water scarcity and rising electricity costs strain farmers, a solar-powered solution took shape. With our support, six families in Balbagpura village installed solar irrigation systems through the “KUSUM” government scheme, securing consistent power for irrigation and avoiding high grid costs. Beneficiaries include Ms. Prabhati Devi, Mr. Mohan Lal Yadav, and others, some from marginalized communities. Following this success, we organized a tour for 50 local farmers to Jodhpur, showcasing dual-use solar installations with panels above and crops below, easing concerns about land loss.

Examples like these are emerging across India, from the Narmada valley to Adivasi Villages in Achanakmar Tiger Reserve, where distributed renewable energy is transforming rural life and radically challenging the assumption that the energy transition must happen from above, placing more emphasis on what is happening below.

About the author

Soumya Dutta is a long standing people's science movement leader from India. He was one of the key people initiating one of the biggest people's science campaigns – Bharat Jan Gyan Vigyan Jatha (1992-1995) as its national organizing secretary. For the past 30+ years, he has been actively working with a large variety of people's movements all across South Asia and is one of the leading voices from the Global South in the Global Climate Justice Campaign. soumyadutta.delhi@gmail.com